An investment advisor’s duty is to form an opinion about the future to make decisions in the present. However unpleasant this task appears, given tenor of the presidential race, we’ll soldier on. White House policies modestly influence capital markets in the short-term, but have little effect on economic fundamentals in the long-term. Hilary Clinton has the […]
Author: David Simpson, CFA
4Q Economic Forecast Survey Highlights
SCM’s Quarterly Consensus Survey, conducted at the beginning of the fourth quarter. It found real GDP forecast consensus slide further to 1.7 percent for 2016 and 2.3 for 2017. The continued below average GDP growth is disappointing. On the other hand, chances of recession are still low due to strong consumer spending and solid labor […]
4Q Industrial Sector Summary
The 4Q Industrial Sector Summary is a highlight of the sector’s performance and outlook. US equity indexes are within the summer’s range. A bullish rotation within equities may be taking place as third quarter earnings season are announced. Expectations have been downgraded over the past couple of months. Thus, it sets up the likelihood of a good […]
Quarter End Market Happy Dance
US equity markets shook off a rough patch to finish October in the black. Also, third quarter end market results also showing similar gains after recovering nicely from Brexit, The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.1% while the S&P was up .8%. Small caps were also up in the quarter with the tech laden Nasdaq up 0.8%. The ten year Treasury […]
CA’s Small Business Secure Choice
Many workers work for small firms who cannot afford to offer a retirement plan. This leaves these workers with limited resources to meet living expenses upon retirement. California is considering creating a plan, Secure Choice Retirement Program. It provides approximately eight million workers with a new means to retire. The Problem Over 75% of the state’s low […]
Gold Investment TV Pitches: Just Say No
Investing in gold is not wise for a non-professional’s portfolio. TV commercials targeting unsuspecting investors, particularly senior citizens, promote an asset class where only professional investors should trod. And most professionals aren’t into gold investment due to gold/silver’s lack of liquidity and riskiness. False Claims Throughout history gold has been held in high esteem and promoted as a hedge against […]
Markets Walk Back July Record Highs
Amid the political conventions of the last weeks, the markets hit record highs but slid back to end the month, still in favorable territory.. Economic news was mixed and political developments didn’t seem to have a material effect. Record Highs The Dow was up 2.8% for July after reaching a record 18,622 on July 26. The […]
3Q SCM Market Review
Here the latest client newsletter. For a PDF version, click here Newsletter16Q3.
3Q Forecast Survey Summary
SCM’s Quarterly Consensus Survey, conducted at the beginning of the third quarter, saw real GDP forecast consensus slide further to 2.2 percent for 2016 and 2.3 for 2017. The continued below average GDP growth is disappointing but chances of recession are still low due to strong consumer spending and solid labor markets. Industrial production is […]
3Q Economic Forecast Survey
The following is a more detailed quarterly version of the annumal US forecast survey published above.
