The following is a more detailed quarterly version of the annumal US forecast survey published above.
US Forecast Consensus
| Series Name | Q1 16 | Q2 16 | Q3 16 | Q4 16 | Q1 17 | Q2 17 | Q3 17 | Q4 17 | 15 Ann | 16 Ann | 17 Ann |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 18297.00 | 18481.75 | 18676.50 | 18881.00 | 19005.50 | 19217.00 | 19451.00 | 19641.00 | 17953.50 | 18554.75 | 19348.75 |
| Nominal GDP Chg % | 2.72 | 4.36 | 4.44 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 4.05 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 4.25 |
| Real GDP | 16590.66 | 16696.66 | 16836.00 | 16914.33 | 16872.00 | 16973.00 | 16433.66 | 16805.33 | 17222.00 | ||
| Real GDP Chg % | 1.86 | 2.70 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.13 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 2.44 | 2.18 | 2.34 |
| Industrial Prod Index | 105.35 | 105.70 | 106.25 | 106.70 | 105.60 | 106.20 | 107.30 | 106.00 | 108.10 | ||
| Industrial Prod % | -0.12 | 0.32 | 1.97 | 2.30 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 0.12 | 2.00 |
| Capacity Utilization | 76.10 | 76.05 | 76.15 | 76.30 | 75.90 | 76.20 | 76.60 | 76.80 | 77.90 | 76.15 | 76.70 |
| Housing Starts | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.59 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.29 |
| Total Vehicle Sales | 17.30 | 17.43 | 17.33 | 17.26 | 16.90 | 16.80 | 16.75 | 16.70 | 17.43 | 17.33 | 17.06 |
| Real Disposable Inc | 12466.00 | 12538.00 | 12607.00 | 12677.00 | 12219.00 | 12572.00 | 12861.00 | ||||
| Real Dispos Inc Chg % | 3.53 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 3.43 | 2.93 | 2.30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.96 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.18 | 4.66 | 4.60 | 4.55 | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.80 | 4.56 |
| Corporate Profits | 1513.00 | 1415.10 | 1432.50 | 1440.90 | 1466.40 | 1495.40 | 1538.70 | 1424.10 | 1498.00 | ||
| Corp Profits Chg % | 0.05 | 1.45 | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.65 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.50 | -0.70 | 2.45 | 1.70 |
| Consumer Price Index | 238.90 | 239.95 | 241.20 | 242.50 | 237.05 | 240.60 | 245.95 | ||||
| CPI Chg % | 0.44 | 1.82 | 1.96 | 2.10 | 2.06 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 0.24 | 1.26 | 2.24 |
| GDP Price Index | 108.43 | 110.77 | 111.22 | 111.69 | 112.40 | 112.98 | 109.63 | 111.03 | 113.05 | ||
| GDP Price Deflator | 1.00 | 1.47 | 1.75 | 1.82 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.90 | 1.02 | 1.45 | 1.90 |
| Personal Consump Exp | 110.30 | 110.70 | 111.25 | 111.70 | 109.30 | 111.00 | 113.00 | ||||
| PCE Chg % | 0.90 | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.96 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 1.20 | 1.94 |
| PPI Chg % | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.20 | -0.90 | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 31.90 | 37.65 | 38.45 | 39.95 | 49.30 | 51.00 | 54.00 | 57.70 | 48.70 | 37.00 | 45.15 |
| Prime Rate | 3.50 | 3.52 | 3.62 | 3.77 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.32 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Fed Funds Target | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 1.01 |
| Treasury Bill | 0.29 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 1.11 |
| LIBOR 3 mo | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 1.16 | 1.33 | 0.31 | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| 2 Yr Treasury Note | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.36 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| 5 Yr Treasury Note | 1.21 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.49 | 1.56 | 1.52 | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| 10 Yr Treasury Bond | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.07 | 2.17 | 1.85 | 1.94 | 1.76 | 1.82 | 2.16 | 2.04 | 2.39 |
| Aaa Corp Yields | 3.93 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 3.91 | 3.95 | 4.27 | ||
| Baa Corp Yields | 5.31 | 5.00 | 5.15 | 5.25 | 5.42 | 5.48 | 4.99 | 5.16 | 5.50 |
