3Q Industrial Sector Review and Outlook

The Brexit vote caught the market off-guard and though recovered nicely, Brexit left more questions than answers with resolution far in the distance.

Business in Britain will not come to a complete stop and the exposure of most US firms appears to be limited.

It’s too early to make sector changes so investors should stay diversified. Any realignment depends on the political decisions of UK and EU policymakers which are impossible to predict.

Sector Summary

S&P Wgt%NameTiltComment
6.60EnergyMarketDeclining U.S. oil production over the next several quarters will help reduce global oversupply, but won’t fix the imbalance before 2017. Reduced investment translates to output declines and helps markets rebalance. Energy sector valuations are high.
2.80MaterialsMarketOptimism continues to reign in Materials year to date, but investors are overestimating the sustainability of recent commodity price rallies, leaving the sector severely overvalued. The reasons for rallies differ, but won't stick.
10.10IndustrialsMarketIndustrials outperformed the broader market since early February but remains undervalued. U.S. manufacturing data has turned slightly positive in recent months, while manufacturing across the rest of the world has been challenged.
12.90Consumer DiscretionaryMarketThe market seems to be underestimating longer-term revenue growth and margin expansion opportunities in this volatile group as measured by relative PEs, especially with its healthy high-end consumer sentiment.
10.70Consumer StaplesMarketConsumer Staples valuations have continued to trend higher over the past several months, leaving the sector slightly overvalued. In light of slowing growth prospects around the world, sluggish revenue growth are expected.
14.70Health CareMarketMarket valuations in healthcare have improved over the last quarter. Strong drug launches and excellent rapidly progressing clinical data in specialty-care areas are supporting increased productivity at drug and biotech companies.
15.60FinancialsOverBrexit effects on interest rates, currency exchange rates, asset price levels, and capital market volatility will likely be more material to earnings than problems caused by relocating operations out of the UK to EU countries.
20.40Information TechnologyOverOverall, we view the tech sector as fairly valued though we continue to see opportunities in smartphone related vendors. Microsoft’s evolution will yield long-term success. When the chips are down, bet on capital equipment firms.
2.80Telecom ServicesUnderBrexit fears have pushed down most European Telecom stocks which is an overreaction. Telecom is somewhat immune to geopolitical changes and Brexit will have little effect on cross-border transfers of voice or data.
3.40UtilitiesUnderUtilities have kept its foot on the gas during the second quarter. The spread between U.S. utilities’ 3.6% average dividend yield and 1.6% 10-year U.S. Treasuries suggests utilities have a long way to run.

Markets End First Half on Upbeat

US equity market recovered nicely from Brexit to finish the second quarter mostly in the black. Also, markets end first half on similar gains The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.4% while the S&P was up 1.9%.  Small caps were up even more in the quarter with Russell 2000 clocking an impressive 3.4% but the tech laden Nasdaq was off 0.6%.

The ten year Treasury finished near record low yields at 1.49%. Crude oil settled in at $48.33 / barrel and gold ended at $1,318/oz. The dollar bought 103 yen which has soared 14% YTD while the euro cost $1.11 which was also 2.2% higher against the dollar. The UK pound closed at $1.33 down 11% YTD.

For the first half of 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.9% and the S&P 500 up 2.7%. The Russell 2000 was up 1.4% while the Nasdaq sunk 3.3%. Gold was up 24% and crude oil up even more at 31%.  Through the first half the euro climbed 2.3% and the yen was up 17%.  The UK pound was off almost 10%.

The results indicate the Brexit downdraft last week was not sustainable. The stock markets seem to be saying recession is still a few quarters out.

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Decisions Need To Be Made Before Smooth Brexit

After the Conservatives select a new prime minister sometime in September, several financial and structural issues will have be addressed before progress is made on a smooth Brexit.

The financial decisions include phase out of UK’s EU budget contributions and what to to with joint research projects slated to end after Brexit. What are they going to do about British subjects working in EU institutions and what is the status of UK nationals living in EU and EU nationals living in the UK?

Remaining EU leaders will need to set new policy priorities regarding economic growth and security.  Negotiations can’t formally Begin until Britain invokes Article 50, official notification of withdrawal, sometime in the fall.

Markets have stabilized somewhat but it will be at least six months before we get close anything resembling normal.

Brexit Outlook Lacks Coherence

Initial analysis on Britain’s exit from the EU has been all over the map and has more to do with the personal biases of the prognosticator than substance. I think we need to know who the next prime minister will be (Johnson, May or Gove?) and allow the other leaders time to hammer out positions.

Meanwhile, financial markets will have to simmer while political consensus is reached and corporate leaders can plan and execute under the new contours. The speed of departure is at issue with France demanding a quick and punitive exit while Germany wants to take time and get it right.

The US economy which remains healthy will do OK while waiting as it did through the Greek crisis.  Worries are strengthening dollar, sagging business confidence and tightening financials conditions. Households will enjoy cheaper imports, grander European vacations and lower mortgage rates.

Forecasting politics and economics is difficult even in the best of times. Best to relax and let things play out.

Scratching the Surface of Brexit

Seems hard to believe Britain actually voted to leave the European Union. It opens up a can of a hundred worms such as myriads of new political and financial accords to be renegotiated, new immigration policies established and opens new internal divisions among the nations of the UK.

Though ground zero was the UK and the plummeting pound, implications around the world were far reaching. Let’s start by examining what happened to global stock markets.

The first wave after the referendum results were in hit Asian markets which are mainly emerging with the exception of Australia, Japan and Hong Kong. Shanghai was down 1.3% (-19% YTD), India -2.2% (+1%), and South Korea -3.0% (-2%) respectively. Meanwhile, Japan swooned -7.9% (-21%), Australia -3.2% (-3%) and Hong Kong -2.9% (-8%).

When European markets opened the carnage continued: UK down -3.2% (-2% YTD), France -8% (-11%), Germany -6.8% (-11%) and Italy -12% (-27%). Apparently the EU markets and economic outlook suffered more than UK. Same story in the US with Dow plunging -3.4% (-0.1% YTD), S&P -3.6% (-3%), and Nasdaq -4.1% (-7%).

Looks like Fed hike is off the table until after the fall elections and the strong dollar caused by cratering currencies (except Japanese yen) will challenge US profits in the near term.  The only certainty to come from Brexit is there will be much more uncertainty.

UK Exit Roils Markets

Its early but UK vote to leave the European Union was unexpected and investors sent global markets into a tailspin.

In my thirty years of investment experience I put this event in the class of the Soviet Union breakup, 9-11, Iraqi war and Greek disturbance. Each event created golden buying opportunities.

Not confident this one follows suit.  Stay tuned right here for my interpretation of developments.  What a time to launch a new blog.

Genesis of DOL’s Fiduciary Rule and Why the Political Battle Wages On

Here’s an article from CFAInsitute describing the DOL Rule Origin.

By Jim Allen, CFA

Baseball great Yogi Berra once said of a National League pennant race, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” If a group of nine industry organizations has its way, the Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) fiduciary rule, issued in April to address conflicts of interest in retirement advice, ain’t over either. In fact, there is a very good chance that it won’t be over for a while.

The organizations suing the DOL aren’t concerned so much with the best interest contract exemption requirement, or even the narrowing of investment options for personal retirement accounts. Make no mistake, the costs of such requirements and the expected loss of revenue and client assets are unwelcome outcomes for the businesses these organizations represent.

No, the industry is most concerned about the potential for trial lawyers to use the rule to launch a massive legal offensive on the financial sector aimed at advice given and investor outcomes. As one industry representative said to me after a panel discussion hosted by CFA Society Washington in April, “your members won’t like this.”

Making Enemies with Hardball Politics

It is no surprise that the DOL’s fiduciary rule has so many enemies. It will cut deeply into $18 billion in annual fees the industry now enjoys. Morningstar has estimated that upward of $3 trillion in assets under management will come into play as a consequence of the rule. When so much money, and the lifestyles that go with it, are threatened, one should expect a big fight.

But the Obama administration didn’t make things any easier for either itself or the rule’s supporters with its approach. From its decision at the launch in February 2015 to portray the problem as $17 billion of investor “losses” every year because of poor investment recommendations, to its choice of a progressive think tank to announce the final rule in April 2016, the administration brought its brand of hardball politics into what was previously a nonpartisan, or at least bipartisan, policy arena. By doing so, it also made support a partisan matter. That has not been good for anyone.

Politically speaking, the February 2015 rollout, replete with President Obama’s personal presence, was brilliant. It dared his opponents—and many inner-city allies—to publicly say they didn’t think it was a good idea for “financial advisors” to have their clients’ best interests in mind when suggesting retirement investment options. Opponents were stuck, initially, and unable to counter the argument that investment vehicles charging fees of 2% to 3% were inappropriate for many, if not most, retirement investors. But brilliant political moves do not necessarily mean good policy or good outcomes for real people.

When opponents regained their footing, they responded with the tried—and, to some disputed extent, true—rebuttal that such a proposal would deprive many low-income investors of professional investment advice. Small investors, they argued, would not have access to advice just when they might need it the most, such as after receiving a small inheritance. Of course, this line of reasoning did little to address the thorny matter of how a guaranteed-income annuity could drain a retirement account of years of earnings, or how some complex instruments sold to retirees were deemed appropriate.

The reasoning did consider, however, the very real possibility that without professional advice, some, and perhaps many, investors would have few options beyond a “safe” bank certificate of deposit, yielding less than 2% if you’re willing to put it away for five years. At those rates, the amount of time people would need to build a retirement nest egg would nearly triple.

Investors, Lawmakers Face Tough Choices to Move in Right Direction

Investors have to weigh their options and make difficult choices, sometimes concluding that a high-priced option is better than a low-yield option. As long as they are aware of the different options, and any in between, they might prefer the opportunity to weigh those trade-offs and make a decision based on what they believe will meet their needs best.

The problem is, they weren’t and aren’t aware. And they aren’t aware because of the subterfuge some parties to this lawsuit used to deliberately confuse investors. Use of the ever-so-subtle term “financial advisor” sounds awfully similar to the title, investment adviser, but they are anything but similar. I know the difference, and it still occasionally catches me off guard. The SEC should have stopped these deceptions years ago.

Like investors, politicians must also make difficult choices and accept legislation that is less than perfect to move things in the right direction. The desire for a higher standard of care might have been worth the Obama administration compromising on some provisions in this case. But President Obama and Labor Secretary Thomas Perez wanted it all, and they didn’t want to deal with trade-offs. They won, but as the pending lawsuits indicate, in the long run it may prove a Pyrrhic victory.

Maybe the Obama administration’s approach was needed to get movement on this difficult issue. With that much money at stake, it was going to take something drastic to get movement. But the hardball approach has its drawbacks, and those of us who favor a best interests standard must hope the politics used to get this rule through the system won’t come back to taint the term “fiduciary duty” for a generation to come.

Fed Press Conference: Uncertainty

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve met today and held its target federal feds rate unchanged after their initial hike in December. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen’s press conference after the meeting can be be summed in one word: Uncertainty. I feel she is a very articulate individual but the gist of what she said was unhelpful to market participants.

From her answers to reporter’s questions, it was clear the FOMC has no plan going forward to rev things up, sounding more like a subjective process reacting to immediate events such as Brexit, Orlando and weak jobs.  FOMC’s critics, including myself, feel the time has passed to raise rates while the listless economy and overvalued stock market is dangerously drifting toward the rocks with no means to steer it away.

The Fed should have raised rates a year ago even if symbolic when the economy could have handled it and given them a cushion to make adjustments to set-backs. Now the stock market has been distorted, commodity-based emerging markets wallowing and developed trade partners weakened.

Yellen couldn’t explain why the Fed’s forecasts and expected policies have constantly changed over the last three years and what their plan was to fix the lack luster GDP growth after nine years of recovery. Mostly likely the economy has lost confidence in the Fed after their policies or lack of have caused lending to shut down, business not wanting to invest. job seekers not motivated and leaving fixed income retirees in the lurch.

While Yellen said otherwise, I’m afraid the presidential elections are going to come into play and will blunt any further credibility the Fed may have left.

Fiduciary Duty Definition

Here is a good legal definition of fiduciary duty from Cornell Law website.

A fiduciary duty is a legal duty to act solely in another party’s interests. Parties owing this duty are called fiduciaries. The individuals to whom they owe a duty are called principals. Fiduciaries may not profit from their relationship with their principals unless they have the principals’ express informed consent. They also have a duty to avoid any conflicts of interest between themselves and their principals or between their principals and the fiduciaries’ other clients. A fiduciary duty is the strictest duty of care recognized by the US legal system.

Examples of fiduciary relationships include those between a lawyer and her client, a guardian and her ward, and a director and her shareholders.

Morningstar Report Determines Winners and Losers of DOL Fiduciary Duty Rule

Here’s an article written by CFA Insitute describing Morningstat’s analysis of the DOL Rule and the industry.

By Jim Allen, CFA

Washington, DC, is known—and regularly scorned—for its role in picking winners and losers through its legislation and regulation, a stigma that dates back centuries. So, it should come as no surprise that the Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) fiduciary duty rule, one of the most sweeping regulatory changes of recent decades, is widely expected to help some existing players while hurting others. Although the rules don’t involve direct infusions of money into the winners, it is expected, nevertheless, to produce changes in the way significant sums of investor money are invested.

Morningstar, a Chicago-based rating agency, has thoroughly assessed the new rules and determined that it will produce three primary trends.

First, it will shift customers from commission-based arrangements to fee-based structures, which is estimated to increase industry revenue by $13 billion.

Second, robo-advisers will likely pick up a large percentage of the $600 billion in low-net-worth IRA balances currently held by full-service wealth managers.

Third, it could lead to a significant increase in the use of passive investment products.
In aggregate, Morningstar predicted that $3 trillion in retail client assets are at stake, relating to $2.4 billion in fee revenue. That is more than double the $1.1 billion in compliance costs the industry estimates will be needed.

The Winners and Losers

On the basis of these trends, the rating firm concluded the rule will favor those engaged in discount brokerage as well as those selling exchange-traded products and index funds. By contrast, life insurers and alternative asset managers are seen as the likely losers. Their high commissions and vertical integration are the areas Morningstar believes will create the problems for insurers.

“[W]e believe that companies that rely heavily on annuity sales and investment services will feel the greatest impact,” Morningstar reported in its Financial Services Observer prior to release of the DOL’s rules. The rules “will make it very difficult for many investment agents and professionals to continue offering investment services and retirement products to clients.”

Morningstar highlighted two reasons why it will be difficult. First, the new rules will look at insurance agents advising about the sale of annuities as fiduciaries, and thus needing not only to enter best interest contracts with their clients, but also to justify high-cost investment instruments to skeptical regulators. Even worse, they will have to justify those instruments to skeptical trial attorneys.

Rise of Robo-Advisers and Passive Investing

The new rules are expected to have mixed effects on full-service wealth managers, although the overall effects will tend toward the negative. For example, Morningstar said the sector will encounter negative effects from the shift toward fee-based accounts, which, while producing higher revenues per account, will cause as much as $600 billion of low-net-worth IRA assets to find new investment channels. Among the beneficiaries will be firms offering advice through robo-advisory systems.

The shift toward robo-advisers is seen pushing such firms toward the critical threshold of $16 billion to $40 billion in collective assets under management, which is believed as the level they need to attain profitability. The use of robo-advisers, meanwhile, is seen directing investors toward passive investment products. Discount brokers, too, are seen furthering the trend toward passive investing because of the DOL rules.

It has been apparent since the introduction of the DOL’s rules in April 2015 that it would cause some firms to lose. The Morningstar report helps describe who the losers are as well as indicate who will be among the winners.